终身学习理念下的中小学幼儿园教师职业生涯规划

在国家全面加强教师队伍建设的背景下,如何培养"四有"的骨干、卓越、教育家,中小学、幼儿园教师成为焦点,成为加强教师队伍建设的核心目标。从骨干到卓越到教育家体现了教师专业成长过程,如何让教师的专业成长的过程有时间表、路线图,在终身学习的理念下引导教师做好职业生涯规划是教师迅速专业成长的前提。     

本科教学中逻辑性课程《纳米材料》的主线设计探索

《纳米材料》课程主要讲解纳米材料的结构与性能之间关系的概念与理论,这种定位决定了纳米材料课应采用逻辑教学法.在这种方法下需找到课程逻辑起点,然后沿着起点设计出一条课程主线,建立课程理论体系,从而合理承接培养方案中的课程群.在《纳米材料》中,纳米结构就是逻辑起点,主线就是"结构与性能"的关系.故该门课程应按"结构和性能"这条主线展开.对现行纳米材料课程内容进行分析,大部分内容均可用主线串联起来.该方法为类似的逻辑性课程教学方法改革以及在课程章节内容之间建立逻辑关联提供借鉴.     

Patient participation in the clinical encounter and clinical practice guidelines: The case of patients’ participation in a GRADEd world

It is widely acknowledged that the patient's perspective should be considered when making decisions about how her care will be managed. Patient participation in the decision making process may play an important role in bringing to light and incorporating her perspective. The GRADE framework is touted as an evidence-based process for determining recommendations for clinical practice; i.e. determining how care ought to be managed. GRADE recommendations are categorized as “strong” or “weak” based on several factors, including the “values and preferences” of a “typical” patient. The strength of the recommendation also provides instruction to the clinician about when and how patients should participate in the clinical encounter, and thus whether an individual patient's values and preferences will be heard in her clinical encounter. That is, a “strong” recommendation encourages “paternalism” and a “weak” recommendation encourages shared decision making. We argue that adoption of the GRADE framework is problematic to patient participation and may result in care that is not respectful of the individual patient's values and preferences. We argue that the root of the problem is the conception of “values and preferences” in GRADE – the framework favours population thinking (e.g. “typical” patient “values and preferences”), despite the fact that “values and preferences” are individual in the sense that they are deeply personal. We also show that tying the strength of a recommendation to a model of decision making (paternalism or shared decision making) constrains patient participation and is not justified (theoretically and/or empirically) in the GRADE literature.     

基于多模态融合技术的用户画像方法

针对当前用户画像工作中各模态信息不能被充分利用的问题, 提出一种跨模态学习思想, 设计一种基于多模态融合的用户画像模型。首先利用 Stacking集成方法, 融合多种跨模态学习联合表示网络, 对相应的模型组合进行学习, 然后引入注意力机制, 使得模型能够学习不同模态的表示对预测结果的贡献差异性。改进后的模型具有精心设计的网络结构和目标函数, 能够生成一个由特征级融合和决策级融合组成的联合特征表示, 从而可以合并不同模态的相关特征。在真实数据集上的实验结果表明, 所提模型优于当前最好的基线方法。     

颠覆性技术促进产业转型升级的趋势与实践路径

新时代以来,中国社会的主要矛盾发生重大转变,产业结构的转型升级对于满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要、实现平衡充分的发展尤为重要。在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上,习近平总书记指出我国经济已由高速增长阶段发展到高质量发展阶段,正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期,产业的结构形态处于动态的、不断调整和优化之中。而颠覆性技术的研发应用,能够针对产业发展的"阿喀琉斯之踵",迅速改变一些产业行业现状,形成新的范式,进而升级产业链促进产业信息化和数据化、升级价值链促进产业融合化和规模化、升级创新链推动产业品质化高端化,对促进产业的转型升级有重要意义。     

Forecasting of electricity price through a functional prediction of sale and purchase curves

This work proposes a new approach for the prediction of the electricity price based on forecasting aggregated purchase and sale curves. The basic idea is to model the hourly purchase and the sale curves, to predict them and to find the intersection of the predicted curves in order to obtain the predicted equilibrium market price and volume. Modeling and forecasting of purchase and sale curves is performed by means of functional data analysis methods. More specifically, parametric (FAR) and nonparametric (NPFAR) functional autoregressive models are considered and compared to some benchmarks. An appealing feature of the functional approach is that, unlike other methods, it provides insights into the sale and purchase mechanism connected with the price and demand formation process and can therefore be used for the optimization of bidding strategies. An application to the Italian electricity market (IPEX) is also provided, showing that NPFAR models lead to a statistically significant improvement in the forecasting accuracy.     

Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

物联网和智慧城市数据处理与管理概念体系构建——以ITU-T数据处理与管理焦点组标准化项目为例

概念体系构建和术语工作是制定任何标准的基础,在多学科和多领域的场景中,构建概念体系和术语工作面临不同利益相关方需求不同而难以达成共识的巨大挑战。文章梳理了ITU-T FG-DPM在促进不同利益相关方和项目组成员之间达成通用概念共识构建统一术语及定义的经验,通过规范概念体系的构建过程,采用术语多维度协同视角来构建统一的数据处理与管理概念体系,促进了工作组和项目组内外在物联网与智慧城市领域数据处理与管理方面达成共识。文章对多学科多领域场景的概念体系构建和术语工作具有一定参考意义,并不局限于物联网和智慧城市领域。     

融合码盘和激光雷达的里程计与建图

提出了一种用于自动驾驶汽车的低漂移、低延迟的里程计与高精度建图的算法。该方法融合了多种传感器的测量结果，包括车轮编码器、转向盘转角编码器、激光雷达及可选GPS等的测量结果。里程计算法由车轮里程计和激光里程计组成：前者基于车辆运动学模型，高频、实时估计位姿增量，用于点云去畸变和为后者优化位姿提供可用的初值；后者以较低的频率估计车辆的精确位姿变化，以补偿前者累计的误差，其核心是一种基于角度度量的两阶段特征提取方法。建图算法基于因子图，包含激光里程计因子、回环因子和可选GPS因子，通过增量平滑和建图算法优化全局轨迹，在线生成全局地图，其中GPS因子能够自动对齐GPS坐标系和里程计坐标系，逐步融合GPS测量值，解除了算法初始化过程对于GPS的依赖。所提出的方法在自动驾驶汽车平台数据集上进行了评估，并和已开源的部分相关工作进行对比，结果表明它具有更低的漂移率，在本文进行的最大规模的测试中达到了0.53%。相关代码以开源形式供交流参考（https：//github.com/Saki-Chen/W-LOAM）。     

中国无人机安全监管

 随着无人机产业的蓬勃发展，加快推进相关立法，加强行业安全监管，已变得十分必要和迫切。综合研究了中国现有无人机相关的监管法规制度情况，分析了各项管理措施和政策，剖析了监管存在的问题，并借鉴国外主流做法和经验，提出中国无人机安全监管应围绕“人、机、环”关键环节，从国家层面建立统一管控平台，加快相关法规标准制定，规范反制设备使用，通过安全检测、试点宣传等手段，推动建立健全安全监管体系。